Climate Change Indication and Projection Over Bale Highlands, Southeastern Ethiopia

Abstract

Global climate has been changing and in fact expected to change in more shocking degree. Therefore, the objective of the current study is to understand climate change signal, downscale climate change scenario for Bale highlands using CORDEX_GCM Models and identify the occurrence of climate change signal in Bale highlands. This study was aimed to make in-depth statistical analysis on past and future climatic trend, rainfall patterns and temperature trends as well as changes for various time scales over Bale highlands. Climate data recorded at meteorological station located in Bale highlands were obtained from National Meteorological Agency Bale Robe Meteorological Branch Directorate while model output of the two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was downloaded from CORDEX Africa Group Data library. Various statistical techniques were employed on rainfall and temperature to analyze and interpret the past and future climatic condition for rainy season over the Bale highlands. The results revealed that the climate change signal was appear over Bale Highlands. The change in temperature over Bale highlands under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios shown as an increase for the period of near century, mid-century and end century. Changes of temperature under RCP8.5 was higher than the change of temperature in RCP4.5 scenario for all three periods (near, mid and end Century). Rainfall change for near, mid and end centuries under RCPs scenarios were variable.