Climate change increases the suitable area and suitability degree of rubber tree powdery mildew in China

Abstract

Rubber tree powdery mildew is one of the most important diseases restricting the development of the natural rubber industry and the improvement of economic efficiency of rubber production. Climate change has seriously influenced the distribution and transmission of rubber tree powdery mildew. However, the impacts of future climate change on the suitable area and suitability degree of rubber tree powdery mildew have been rarely investigated. Based on environmental and disaster data of rubber tree powdery mildew in the baseline (1970–2000) and future climate change scenarios (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100), Maximum Entropy Models (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the impacts of future climate change on the distribution of suitable area and the suitability degree of rubber tree powdery mildew in China. The results showed that the MaxEnt model could effectively simulate the historical distribution and suitability degree of rubber tree powdery mildew. The top two major environmental variables were mean temperature of driest quarter and temperature seasonality considering their contribution rates of 44.2% and 24.61%, respectively. Currently, the suitable areas of the rubber tree powdery mildew were mainly concentrated in central and southern Hainan Island, southern Yunnan province, southern Guangxi province, southwestern Guangdong province, and southern Fujian province. Compared with the baseline, the suitable area of rubber tree powdery mildew would enlarge by 0.24%, 0.59%, 0.78%, and 3.25% respectively under 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 in China. The suitability degree of rubber tree powdery mildew would increase under future climate change scenarios in China with most significant increase in Hainan and Yunnan rubber planting areas. The key areas for rubber tree powdery mildew prevention and control would concentrate in the southern Yunnan province and the central Hainan Island. The study results could provide an important reference for ensuring the safe production of rubber tree and reducing the use and residue of agricultural chemicals and environmental impacts. • Temperature mainly determines the distribution of rubber tree powdery mildew. • Climate change enlarges the suitable area of rubber tree powdery mildew in China. • Climate change increases suitability degree of rubber tree powdery mildew in China.