Climate change in the western part of the Russian Arctic in 1980–2021. Part 1. Air temperature, precipitation, wind

Abstract

The warming of the Arctic climate is confirmed by changes in the main hydrometeorological values of the atmosphere and ocean over a long period of time, and it is most pronounced in the recent decades. Based on monthly average data from the reanalysis of NASA MERRA-2 satellite measurements, we studied climate changes in air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed in the region of the western part of the Russian Arctic (60°–75° N, 30°–85° E) over 1980–2021. The transition between 2000 and 2001 was chosen as the time boundary between the periods, based on the application of the model of stepwise transitions from one quasi-stationary regime to another. Using this method, 2001 was found to be the smallest step year in the western Russian Arctic region. Significant changes in the parameters studied between the periods 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 are shown. Moreover, the strongest increase in temperature was observed for the months of November and April, which indicates a shift in the boundaries of the seasons — a later start and an early end of winter. It was found that in the period 2001–2021 the temperature increased most rapidly in the water areas of the Barents and Kara seas, and this growth occurred with acceleration. Negative temperature changes were found in the winter season in the areas where large rivers flow into the Barents and Kara Seas. It is hypothesized that this is due to the detected increase in the amount of precipitation in the catchment area of these rivers in 2001–2021 compared to 1980–2000. It is shown that the detected increase in the amount of precipitation is associated with a significant change in the atmospheric circulation in the region under study. In the summer season and September the western wind intensified in the region under study. During the winter season 2001–2021 in the Barents and Kara Seas the south wind increased compared to 1980–2000. Thus, significant changes in the climate of the western part of the Russian Arctic occurred during the time period considered. Westerly transport from the North Atlantic has intensified, precipitation has increased, and there has been an accelerated rise in temperature. All this contributed to the “atlantification” of the climate of the western part of the Russian Arctic.