Abstract
ABSTRACT The region around the municipality of Bastos, state of Sao Paulo, accounted for about 7% of Brazilian egg production in 2015. In 2012, it experienced a heat wave that resulted in the death of approximately 500,000 hens, according to information released at the time. Considering the impact of heat waves on layer mortality, the objective of this study was to analyze how heat waves impact the layer farming in the region of Bastos, considering the climate change scenarios forecasted by the IPCC for the next years. This study was conducted in three stages: i) analysis of the IPCC reports to understand climate change scenarios; ii) analysis of historical temperature data in the region of Bastos; iii) analysis of how climate change, through heat waves, may impact layer mortality in this region. All the IPCC scenarios indicate that both average temperature and the number of extreme events, such as heat waves, are expected to increase. Historical data showed that since the mid-1980s, maximum temperature has increased, as well as the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. The association of layer mortality due to heat waves with the IPCC climate change forecasts for that region indicates a trend of increasing layer mortality in egg production operations which sheds are not equipped with air conditioning.
Highlights
Climate change may affect poultry production in several ways
The data refer to temperatures recorded at Station No 83716, located in the municipality of Presidente Prudente, In 1988, in search of new discoveries and seeking to solve future problems, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which aims at generating and organizing information on climate change by researchers around the world (IPCC, 2018a)
The IPCC regularly publishes reports generated by three research groups, which try to describe the effects of climate change under different approaches
Summary
Climate change may affect poultry production in several ways. It may have indirect impacts, influencing production inputs (corn, soy, electricity, etc.), as well as direct impacts, generated by the constant increase in environmental temperature over the years (productivity and egg quality losses) or by the incidence of extreme temperature events (mortality). The IPCC gathers researchers from different countries and areas of activity with the objective of generating and organizing information to forecast future scenarios of temperature and rainfallvariation. Based on these scenarios, the possible socioeconomic and environmental impacts generated by climate change may be predicted (IPCC, 2018a)
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