Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina According to Climate Scenario RCP8.5 and Possible Impact on Fruit Production

Goran Trbic,Igor Milunovic,Marko Ivanisevic,Tihomir Dejanovic,Tatjana Popov,Vladimir Djurdjevic,Slobodan Gnjato

doi:10.3390/atmos13010001

Goran Trbic, Igor Milunovic + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010001

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Journal: Atmosphere	Publication Date: Dec 21, 2021
Citations: 5	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Banja Luka, University of Belgrade

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed.

Highlights

The changing climate, and changes in climate extremes are one of the crucial challenges posed on human society and the environment [1]
Climate models suggest that these extremes will intensify in the future and will pose a greater risk and threat to fruit growing in Bosnia and Herzegovina
There is an obvious lack of scientific research and published papers on the impact of climate change on fruit production in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Summary

Introduction

The changing climate, and changes in climate extremes are one of the crucial challenges posed on human society and the environment [1]. There is an obvious lack of scientific research and published papers on the impact of climate change on fruit production in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Republika Srpska: In the structure of large fruit orchards during the last ten years (2010–2019) (measured by the number of trees), the relative share of plums is decreasing, and the share of apples and pears is increasing, which is the result of production orientation when raising new orchards. Brcko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina: in the Brcko District of B&H the most common fruit species is plum (about 400 thousand trees), followed by apple (80 thousand trees) and pear (50 thousand trees), with annual variations in yield and production as well as in other districts of B&H [17]

Study Area

Materials and Methods

Findings

Discussion