Abstract
Barcelona city has a strong dependence on the Ter and Llobregat reservoir system to provide drinking water. One main concern for the next century is a potential water scarcity triggered by a severe and persistent rainfall shortage. This is one of the climate-driven impacts studied within the EU funded project RESCCUE. To evaluate potential drought scenarios, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model reproduces the water contributions by month that have reached the reservoirs, regarding the accumulated rainfall over each sub-basin, representing the available historical-observed water levels. For future scenarios, we adjusted the input data set using climate projections of rainfall time series data of the project RESCCUE. Local outputs from 9 different climate models were applied to simulate river basins’ responses to reservoirs’ incoming water volume. Analyzing these results, we obtained average trends of the models for each scenario, hypothetical extreme values, and quantification for changes in water availability. Future water availability scenarios for Barcelona central water sources showed a mean decrease close to 11% in comparison with the period 1971–2015, considering the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario in the year 2100. This research forecasts a slight downward trend in water availability from rainfall contributions from the mid-21st century. This planned future behavior does not mean that the annual water contributions are getting lower than the current ones, but rather, identifies an escalation in the frequency of drought cycles.
Highlights
Climate change estimates to affect all spheres of human activity in the natural environment, including water resources
Water resource availability shortage threatens urban areas due to factors such as rapid urbanization, increased water use, lack of climate change adaptation policies, and repeated drought events [5]; drought has historically affected 35% of the population hit by natural hazards [1]
On the question of understanding and analyzing the water resource availability in Barcelona in the future under different climate change situations, this study found that the water availability would drop in this 21st century for the reservoir system
Summary
Climate change estimates to affect all spheres of human activity in the natural environment, including water resources. A significant proportion of the human population is currently experiencing restrictions on access to drinking water due to drought events, a vulnerable component of the natural and social action chains [2]. Increases in drought events’ frequency and severity are forecast under the impact of climate change [3], examples include events in China (1991–1996), East Africa (2010–2011), United States of America (2011–2012), Australia (2013–2016), and Catalonia, Spain (2006–2008) [4]. Water resource availability shortage threatens urban areas due to factors such as rapid urbanization, increased water use, lack of climate change adaptation policies, and repeated drought events [5]; drought has historically affected 35% of the population hit by natural hazards [1]. Drought is a slow process of shortage accumulation, and the sharpness of drought episodes is related to current rainfall, but much more related to the cumulative impact of previous hydrological balances
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