Climate Change Impacts on Yields of Phenologically Different Rice Varieties Over a Sub-Humid Climatic Environment

Abstract

The current study aims to predict the impact of climate change on rice yields for three varieties varying in duration, at representative locations falling under different agro climatic zones of Bihar, India, through crop modelling. Short (Saket-4), medium (Sita) and long duration (Radha) varieties of rice selected for the study exhibited distinct trends in terms of economic yield, but the magnitude of impact varies. Maximum effect of projected increases in temperature was on the long-duration variety and the least affected was the variety requiring lesser maturity days. Maximum reduction in yield for 2080 time period was observed for Pusa station falling in North West alluvial plains followed by locations in South Bihar alluvial plains. For 2020 and 2050 time periods, increased temperature and carbon dioxide had a positive effect on productivity of short and medium duration varieties (1–6 %),as witnessed in the simulation studies. For 2080, yield of rice declined in an increasing order from short to long duration varieties from 12 to 33 %. Average yield of all varieties showed maximum decline (34 %) for 2080 at Pusa representing zone I followed by almost 24 % decline at Sabour with the current varieties and management practices.