Climate change impacts on the tourism sector of the Spanish Mediterranean coast: Medium-term projections for a climate services tool

Abstract

The Mediterranean Sea is a climate change hotspot since it provides a magnified warming signal. Heavily populated areas (e.g., Spanish Mediterranean coasts) are vulnerable to negative socio-economic impacts. This is particularly important for climate-related economic sectors such as coastal tourism, the focus of this paper. To promote a sustainable development of these activities and provide key information to stakeholders, it is necessary to anticipate changes in climate. Thus, it is fundamental to use climate modelling tools which account for air-sea interactions, which largely determine the climate signal of the Mediterranean coasts. In this paper, a set of regional air-sea coupled climate model simulations from Med-CORDEX are used to (i) study the climatic conditions on the Spanish Mediterranean coasts in the next decade(s) and (ii) to assess the possibility of extending the coastal tourist season towards spring-fall. We show that climate conditions are getting warmer and drier in the area, especially in summer. Heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more frequent. Thermal discomfort will increase in summer and summer conditions are extending towards spring and fall. Our work remarks the urgent need of adaptation measures of the sector, including the extension of the high tourist season to spring-fall, especially in the long term. We make a special effort to compile a set of adaptation measures for stakeholders. This study is part of the project ECOAZUL-MED, which aims to create a climate service tool to optimize the management of relevant sectors of the blue economy in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts.