Climate-change impacts on offshore wind resources in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

The evolution of offshore wind resources in the Mediterranean Sea up to 2100 is studied following the latest climate-change scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Three scenarios are considered: a high emissions scenario, i.e., fossil-fuelled development; a business-as-usual scenario, in which current emission levels are maintained; and a low-emissions scenario. Particularly, the low-emissions scenario is of special interest since it represents the achievement of the targets set by the Paris Agreement and EU’s Green Deal, which is a novelty in this type of work. A multi-model ensemble is constructed to reduce individual uncertainties with the Global Climate Models that are found to perform best in the Mediterranean Sea. With the exception of the low-emissions scenario, the results show a generalised decline in mean wind power density and augmented variability by 2100. This decline is more pronounced in the high-emissions scenario, with a widespread drop in mean wind power density of ∼20%, rising to 30% around the Balearic Islands. By contrast, the low-emissions scenario anticipates strong, localised growth in certain areas around the Italian Peninsula and off Lebanon and Israel. As for the seasonal variability, profound changes are predicted depending on the scenario and period considered, with increases of up to 80% and decreases of up to 40% in mean seasonal wind power density. These trends have significant implications for wind energy production and can serve as a background for future downscaling initiatives. On the positive side, the comparison between the three scenarios indicates that reducing carbon emissions in line with international climate accords may indeed help to mitigate the decline in wind resources in the Mediterranean Sea and the increase in their variability.