Climate Change Impacts on Malaria Incidence: A 10-Year Retrospective Analysis in Luapula and Southern Zambia

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria in Zambia. The study focused on variations in prevalence influenced by climatic and environmental factors. This study adopted a retrospective comparative analytical approach, utilizing 157 case records from each province. The survey investigated temperature, seasonal variations, and land use activities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to explore the relationships between malaria incidence and climate change. The findings revealed a high fluctuating trend of rainfall from 2010 to 2020, with an average annual rainfall of 1058.0 mm. The highest total rainfall was observed in 2017 (1434.4 mm), indicating a strong association between malaria incidence rates and rainfall, as supported by a significant p-value of 0.041. Additionally, an assessment of the annual percentage of drought area for each province showed that in 2019, Southern Province had the highest percentage of drought at 64% over the ten-year period. This resulted in a poor vegetation health index, creating unfavorable environmental conditions for mosquito larvae and leading to reduced malaria transmission in the southern region. Importantly, demographic data revealed distinct population distributions between provinces, with a significant urban-rural divide. The majority of the population in both provinces resided in rural areas, with 797,407 in Luapula Province and 1,197,751 in Southern Province. Despite southern province having a higher population distribution in rural areas, Luapula Province exhibited a higher number of malaria transmission cases over the ten-year period. These results emphasize the crucial role of climate change and local environmental factors in the dynamics of malaria transmission, highlighting the need for malaria control strategies tailored to specific regions in Zambia.