Abstract
Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015) was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.
Highlights
In order to develop long-term coastal defence and management strategies required for sustainable coastal management, it is important to be confident in the knowledge of any possible future changes in metocean climate
Future storm climate at Pembroke and West Gabbard, modelled under a cluster of Scenarios C0, C1, C2 and C3, was analysed, where C0 represents the ensemble mean of the A1B scenario, and the other three clusters are differently classified future sea surface temperature (SST) patterns from 18 CMIP3 models under the A1B emission scenario [30]
It can be seen in this figure that a very clear seasonal signature exists in peak storm wave height, similar to that in the PWP scenario, with higher average peak storm wave heights occurring throughout the winter months compared with summer months
Summary
In order to develop long-term coastal defence and management strategies required for sustainable coastal management, it is important to be confident in the knowledge of any possible future changes in metocean climate. Wave climate is an important factor in offshore operations and maritime transport considering swell [2]; this highlights the importance of changes in future wave and storm climate to a wide range of both nearshore and offshore activities. The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) [3,4] supported by the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology World Meteorological organization (JCOMM/WMO) was developed to address the need for attention towards future changes in wave climate over the 21st Century, as well as providing a coordinated approach to global wave climate modelling, which was highlighted in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 [5]) and archived in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 [1]) by COWCLIP. Torhteh mPaocdifeicl Ooucetapnu.tTshheagvleobbaelewnaevxetemnosdivelellinyguhsaesdbteoenincvaersriteigdaotuetwfoarvtewaontdimreelated typhosloicne iemxppearcimtseinntsthweiNtho1r9th79P–2a0c0ifi cgOivcineganth. e present climate and 2075–2099 providing the future cTlihmeaptereastean6t0s-tkumdryesuotliulitsioens .cTuhreremnotdaenldoufutptutrsehwavaevbeepenroejxetcetniosinvsel[y12u]setod taonianlvyessetitghaeteimwapvleicaantidons of globarellcaltiemd atytephcohoannigmepoanctstionrtmhewNaovrtehcPliamcifaicteOacreoaunn. d the UK Due to its location within the Atlantic Ocean, thTeheUpKreesxenptesrtiuednyceustislitsreosncgurwreinntdasnpdrfeudtuorme iwnaavnetlpyrofrjeocmtiotnhse[1s2o]utothawnaelsyts.eAthuetuimmpnlicaantidonws inter tendotfogblorbinagl cslitmroantegcehrasntgoermonssytostremmwsa, vwehcilliemsapterianroguannddthseuUmKmDeuretetonditstlooceaxtpioenriwenitcheinctahlemAstlwanetlilcwave condOiticoenans., ItnhereUcKenetxypeeariresn, cthesesUtrKonhgaws einxdpserpireendcoemdianasnigtlnyififrcoamntthinecsroeuasthewinesstt.oArmutyumwneaatnhderwcionntedritions durintceognndwdititoniotbnersrin.wgInhsterrroeenceg2ne0tr1s3yt/eoa2rmr0s1,s4ythsetexepmUesKr,iwehnhacisleedesxpaprelinarirgegnaecnenddusumambsmeigrenroifftiecsnatdnotrtmoinescxropeceacrsiueernircniencsgatolwmrmitshywinewllaewaptahevereriod of two mcoonndtihtisoncasudsuirnigngsewvienrteercwoahsetrael 2fl0o1o3d/2i0n1g4 aenxpdebrieeancchederaolsairogne,nwuhmicbherleodf sttoorwmisdoecscpurreraindgdwesitthriuncation to humapnerlioivdeos,f dtwamo magoentthosincafurassintrguscetvuerreeacnodastsaigl nfloifiocdainngt eacnodnboemacihc leorossseiosn. , which led to widespread dSeinstcreucthtieonfotocuhsuhmearne liisveosn, dthame UagKe tsotoinrmfrawstrauvcetucrleimanadtes,iwgneifwicailnltfiercsotndoemriicvelotshseesp. resent (1979–2009)
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