Abstract
We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference case and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat for three freshwater fish guilds and changes in coral reef cover for three regions. We estimated resulting economic impacts from projected changes in recreational fishing and changes in recreational use of coral reefs. In general, coldwater fisheries are projected to be replaced by less desirable fisheries over the 21st century, but these impacts are reduced under the GHG mitigation scenarios. Similarly, coral cover is projected to decline over the 21st century primarily due to multiple bleaching events, but the GHG mitigation scenarios delay these declines in Hawaii (but not in South Florida or Puerto Rico). Using a benefit-transfer approach, we estimated that global policies limiting GHG emissions would provide economic benefits in the range of $10–28 billion over the 21st century through maintaining higher values for recreational services for all freshwater fisheries and coral reefs, compared to the reference scenario. These economic values are a subset of the total economic and societal benefits associated with avoiding projected future declines in freshwater fisheries and coral reef cover due to unmitigated climate change.
Highlights
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the resulting changes in climate projected to occur through the 21st century threaten the health of aquatic resources and the ecosystem services they provide in the United States (U.S.)
Because our scope is limited to two resource categories, the economic losses presented here are a subset of the likely total economic impacts to aquatic resources in the U.S caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions
By 2100, coldwater fisheries are projected to remain in Appalachia under both mitigation scenarios, reduced by roughly 50 % compared to current conditions
Summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the resulting changes in climate projected to occur through the 21st century threaten the health of aquatic resources and the ecosystem services they provide in the United States (U.S.). Within the CIRA framework, we address two categories of aquatic resources in the U.S with significant recreational use: freshwater fish habitat and coral reefs. We selected these aquatic resource categories because data and models are available that can relate climatic changes to biophysical impacts and resulting economic losses. Because our scope is limited to two resource categories, the economic losses presented here are a subset of the likely total economic impacts to aquatic resources in the U.S caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions. Climate change is projected to affect the viability of coral reef ecosystems (Smith and Buddemeier 1992; Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007; Donner 2009)
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