Abstract
Rapid advances in eradicating invasive species from islands are improving conservation outcomes in these biodiversity hotspots. However, recent conservation gains could be reversed not only by future invasions from non‐native species but also by future extinctions of native taxa, both of which may be facilitated by – or exacerbated by interactions among drivers of – global environmental change. We highlight relevant knowledge gaps that must be filled to reduce uncertainty about the ecological effects of future climate change. We use Aotearoa New Zealand as a case study of island ecosystems to demonstrate that in addition to sea‐level rise, most ecologically meaningful impacts of climate change on biodiversity responses are indirect and due to exacerbation of existing threats, including the impact of invasive species as well as the loss and fragmentation of habitat. We identify key topics where progress is needed to future‐proof conservation management for island ecosystems susceptible to the direct and indirect effects of climate change.
Highlights
Conservation managementManagement of non‐native invasive species dominates conservation efforts in New Zealand (eg Russell et al 2015; Simberloff 2019)
Rapid advances in eradicating invasive species from islands are improving conservation outcomes in these biodiversity hotspots
We focus on land‐based ecosystems, we note that warming seas and ocean acidification are affecting marine systems in New Zealand’s territorial waters, as well as elsewhere
Summary
Management of non‐native invasive species dominates conservation efforts in New Zealand (eg Russell et al 2015; Simberloff 2019). We used our collective knowledge and which have had negative impacts on the native biota (Russell experience across a range of taxa and ecosystems to position et al 2015) We acknowledge that these introduced pests each taxon, ecosystem, and process in a space defined by data remain a pressing threat to the biodiversity of New Zealand, availability and understanding (epistemic certainty). In the ewingii; Figure 4a) on New Zealand pond ecosystems; how- case of the brown mudfish, a tornado that knocked down a ever, these frogs are currently invading South Island alpine swath of trees in a forest (Figure 4c) greatly increased suitable tarns (Figure 3), which are themselves poorly studied and vul- mudfish habitat, thereby enhancing metapopulation persisnerable to climate change (Wissinger et al 2016). When sea‐surface temperatures warm, adult survival declines, most likely due to complex food‐web responses; such events are expected to occur more frequently across the country in the future
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