Abstract
This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.
Highlights
Weather-related events, such as ice, high winds, flooding, and lightning strikes, cause about 78% of major power interruptions in the U.S power distribution system [1]
These costs include the costs of adaptation and are the change in costs compared to a no climate change scenario—i.e., with infrastructure growth and baseline climate
We explored the costs of climate change on the U.S electricity transmission and distribution system
Summary
Weather-related events, such as ice, high winds, flooding, and lightning strikes, cause about 78% of major power interruptions in the U.S power distribution system [1] (based on 1333 events from 1992 to 2010). For many people, such power interruptions serve as the first tangible sign of the inter-related nature of weather and existing electric distribution and transmission systems. As climate change increasingly alters climate conditions and patterns away from observed history, this traditional approach to infrastructure design may no longer be adequate, leading to power interruptions and other physical impacts to the electric grid to change in frequency and/or duration, and imposing unexpected costs
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