Climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural water management in the Philippines.

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is now a reality and is expected to have profound impacts on agricultural production systems, thus threatening food security. Local observational evidence of changing climate based on available historical weather data-sets is presented for selected locations in the Philippines. In this study, plausible climate scenarios and downscaled climate projections for representative crop production areas are discussed. Results of downscaling of climate projections for 2020, 2050 and 2080 using a dynamic downscaling procedure and a statistical downscaling method are presented and compared. Impacts of climate change and variability on crop productivity and production systems in selected crop-growing areas in the country are presented. Crop yields using a calibrated crop simulation model for a standard rice variety (IR-64) and a local maize variety (IPB-911) for projected climate were determined. Results indicate a reduction from 8% to 14% in crop yields per 1°C temperature increase depending on season and location. Some adaptation strategies related to agricultural water management to minimize the adverse effects and impacts of climate change are described. These location-specific measures based on best practices include adjusting the planting calendar, improving water use efficiency and irrigation water management, water impoundment, planting stress-tolerant varieties, and weather index-based insurance for crop production.