Climate Change Impact on Water Supply Demands: Case Study of the City of Skopje

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to present climate chance impact on drinking water supply and assess availability of current water resources to meet the increasing demands in climate change conditions for the city of Skopje. Series of monthly precipitation and temperature data are generated up to 2050, using recorded data and data for predicted changes of air temperature and precipitation according to climate change scenarios developed for the Republic of Macedonia within the Third National Communication. Climate change impact on drinking water supply is assessed using statistical models for dependence of the water supply data to the main climate parameters: temperature and precipitation. Forecast of future water quantities includes implementation of multi regression models defined with a set of independent variables: number of population for time sets (t, t − 1, t − 2, t − 3), precipitation and air temperature including predicted changes of the data under climate change conditions for the same time sets. Two scenarios are analysed: first – predicts the number of population until 2050 remains nearly the same as nowadays, second – predicts increase of number of population on average annual rate of increase of 0,58%. Results are indicating shortage of available water resources for population and industry in climate change scenarios (increasing of temperatures and decreasing of precipitations) and increase of population. Understanding the vulnerability of both water resources and variability of drinking water demands for the city of Skopje results in identifying the most dominant factors that influence vulnerability. It is vital to ensuring sustainable water management in the region.