Abstract
West Africa (WA) in recent past experienced decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature. A preliminary assessment of these trends in the future (2025-2045) was conducted to evaluate its potential impact on water resources, specifically the Tono irrigation dam in Ghana. The climate change assessment was based on future climate data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 projected with ECHAM6 model and downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reference with historical data (1990-2010). A 2-domain configuration was used: an outer domain at 25 km horizontal resolution encompassing the West African Region and an inner domain at 5 km horizontal resolution centered on the Tono basin. The assessment was done based on the annual mean, relative percentage change and spatial seasonal change of the simulated precipitation and temperature. The results show that for precipitation, both scenarios do not agree on the signal of change. RCP4.5 indicates an increase (+7%) in annual precipitation amount whereas RCP 8.5 indicates a decrease (-9.6%). For temperature, both scenarios agree on increasing temperature. These results shows that future streamflow will be influenced by climate change. The indications are that the flows will reduce does the dam levels will also reduce does affecting irrigation activities. This studies therefore provides information to the managers of Tono irrigation dam what measures to put in place for its sustainability.
Highlights
Water resources are key to the survival of society and ecosystems
To assess the sustainability of water resources in climate change context, it is necessary to model how these resources will behave in the future
Several studies have indicated that the future water availability will be affected by population increase but by a combination of climate change and the exponentially increasing demography [39]
Summary
Water resources are key to the survival of society and ecosystems. The health and survival of man depends on water. This will require projection of the changes in the future climate and how these changes will impact water resources Studies of this nature will provide an insight as to the likely events and what steps to put in place in other to sustain these resources. The studies done by Ardoin et al, 2015 and Rescan, 2005; showed that the runoff and water availability of the Sassandra River in Cote d’Ivoire, would increase from 10-13% during the first half of the 21st century (Horizon, 2050) [12, 13] Most of these studies simulated the climate from HadCM3 global climate model with A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Applying the relatively updated IPCC future scenarios (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathways), provides an improved means of assessing the impact of the climate change on water resources. The data generated was used to evaluate climate change at the Tono dam and its consequent impact on the sustainability of the irrigation scheme
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