Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Meron Taye,Feyera Hirpa,Ellen Dyer,Katrina Charles

doi:10.3390/w10111560

Meron Taye, Feyera Hirpa + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111560

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Abstract

Rapid growth of agriculture, industries and urbanization within the Awash basin, Ethiopia, as well as population growth is placing increasing demands on the basin’s water resources. In a basin known for high climate variability involving droughts and floods, climate change will likely intensify the existing challenges. To quantify the potential impact of climate change on water availability of the Awash basin in different seasons we have used three climate models from Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and for three future periods (2006–2030, 2031–2055, and 2056–2080). The models were selected based on their performance in capturing historical precipitation characteristics. The baseline period used for comparison is 1981–2005. The future water availability was estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections using the representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) emission scenarios after the climate change signals from the climate models are transferred to the observed data. The projections for the future three periods show an increase in water deficiency in all seasons and for parts of the basin, due to a projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This decrease in water availability will increase water stress in the basin, further threatening water security for different sectors, which are currently increasing their investments in the basin such as irrigation. This calls for an enhanced water management strategy that is inclusive of all sectors that considers the equity for different users.

Highlights

Climate change and population growth are projected to increase water scarcity concerns
With the potential for climate change to exacerbate these extremes of climate variability in the basin, it is imperative that we develop a better understanding of their potential impact on water resources and how it will impact water supply to meet growing demands
Given that direct use of general circulation circulation models models (GCM) output to hydrological impact assessment is unadvisable due to Resolution the mismatch of spatial resolution between the GCM and what is required for hydrology, the change

Summary

Introduction

Climate change and population growth are projected to increase water scarcity concerns. More specific regional and seasonal projections of climate change impacts are needed. Climate change will significantly impact water resources. There is a need to plan how to adapt to these changes, and how to mitigate the changes for water resources. In sub-Saharan Africa, there are many vulnerable river basins These basins are vulnerable both in terms of the climate system that is highly variable and the potential future changes in climate, and in terms of management as weak governance and high levels of poverty in the population restrict actions to adapt to climate change [3]

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