Abstract
Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the suitable areas worldwide for both species under the current climate. We also made future projections for years 2050 and 2070 using 11 different General Circulation Models, for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Our analyses showed that X. compactus has not been reported in all potentially suitable areas yet. Its current distribution in Europe is localised, whereas our results predicted that most of the periphery of the Mediterranean Sea and most of the Atlantic coast of France could be suitable. Outside Europe, our results also predicted Central America, all islands in Southeast Asia and some Oceanian coasts as suitable. Even though our results when modelling its potential distribution under future climates were more variable, the models predicted an increase in suitability poleward and more uncertainty in the circumtropical regions. For X. crassiusculus, the same method only yielded poor results, and the models thus could not be used for predictions. We discuss here these results and propose advice about risk prevention and invasion management of both species.
Highlights
Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide
Both species were recently reported from Europe where they were first detected in Italy, X. crassiusculus in 2 00325 and X. compactus 201126, before being detected in France in 2014 and 2 01527, respectively
Out of the 126 environmental datasets tested in the first step of the analysis, none fulfilled the evaluation criteria for Xylosandrus crassiusculus, either due to lack of predictive power regarding European occurrences, low Area Under Curve (AUC) (< 0.8) or low True Skill Statistics (TSS) (< 0.6) values
Summary
Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. Bark and ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera:Curculionidae:Scolytinae) are considered as one of the most successful groups of invasive species[16] and represent an increasing concern worldwide[17] They are hard to detect as they are usually minute insects, and can travel long distances unnoticed, hidden in wood packaging or living plants[18]. X. crassiusculus and X. compactus, native of Southeast Asia, are known invaders worldwide and share similar invasion histories Both have been detected outside of their native range more than one century ago in Madagascar before spreading to continental Africa and later in the New World. We can assume that both species are quite plastic, little is known about their precise ecological requirements
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