Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation

Abstract

One of the conifers that survived after the last glaciation is the Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco. Due to the gradual increase in temperature, this species was forced to move from the south to the north and to higher elevation, causing a fragmented and intermittent distribution in Mexico. The main objective of this study was to model and identify suitable areas for the future conservation of the P. menziesii in Mexico. The specific objectives of this research were: (i) to model the habitat suitability of P. menziesii in Mexico, (ii) to identify the most relevant environmental variables based on its current and future habitat suitability (2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090) and (iii) to suggest areas for the conservation of the species in Mexico. Records were compiled from different national and international sources. Climate and topographic variables were used. With MaxEnt software version 3.4.3 (Phillips, New York, NY, USA) 100 distribution models were obtained, where the model showed an area under the curve of 0.905 for training and 0.906 for validation and partial ROC of 1.95 and Z reliable (p < 0.01), with TSS values > 0.80. The current area of the P. menziesii was 31,580.65 km2. The most important variables in the current and future distribution were maximum temperature of the hottest month, precipitation of the coldest trimester and average temperature of the coldest trimester. The percentage of permanence (resilience) for the 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 climate horizons was 49.79%, 25.14%, 17.45% and 16.46%, respectively, for the SSP 245 scenario. On the other hand, for the SSP 585 scenario and the analyzed horizons, the percentage resilience in areas of suitable habitat zones was 41.45%, 27.42%, 9.82% and 2.89%.