Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Evdokia Tapoglou,Anthi Vozinaki,Ioannis Tsanis

doi:10.3390/w11030587

Evdokia Tapoglou, Anthi Vozinaki + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030587

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Journal: Water	Publication Date: Mar 21, 2019
Citations: 19	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Technical University of Crete, University of Hull

Abstract

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

Highlights

Extreme events, such as meteorological droughts, hydrological droughts, extreme flow and extreme precipitation events are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change [1], and are significantly affecting several Mediterranean basins [2]
The objective of this study is to examine the variation of extreme events with mid and long term duration under climate change, the 12 month time scale is used
The simulated parameters precipitation, flow volume, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), as well as their frequency analysis results, were very close to the observed data, concluding that the climate model projections are consistent and can be comparable as long as the current climate is set as baseline

Summary

Introduction

Extreme events, such as meteorological droughts, hydrological droughts, extreme flow and extreme precipitation events are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change [1], and are significantly affecting several Mediterranean basins [2]. The frequency of such events, as well as the magnitude of events with specific return period, is expected to change in the future due to climate change. Several studies have extensively analysed in the past extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena attributed to extreme flow and extreme precipitation in several Mediterranean watersheds in Crete. Flocas et al [5]

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