Abstract
Abstract Climate change impacts have been felt deeply by farmers of the Bardsir region, which is situated in the southeast of Iran. The current research focuses on the climate change impacts on the region's agricultural sector by the horizon of 2051. In the first step, by means of data generated by two micro lysimeters, the best-localized formula for estimating reference evapotranspiration was derived. Then the irrigation requirements of wheat, barley, rape, corn, alfalfa, potato, and onion crops were estimated by GFDL-ESM2M and Had GEM2-ES model outputs with two scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. According to the findings, under both scenarios, the irrigation requirements of all plants will be increasing. Assuming that the current water consumption patterns remain unchanged, this will increase the total annual water demand of the plain from its present value of 331.9 to 369.66 million cubic meters (MCM) in the RCP4.5 scenario and 375.58 MCM in the RCP8.5 scenario based on GFDL-ESM2M model output. These values would be 345.11 and 349.85 MCM for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, based on Had GEM2-ES model output by 2051. To conserve the current cultivation area, GCM models indicate, under a pessimistic scenario, even after modernizing the irrigation systems of the region the plain will encounter negative balance due to groundwater overdraft.
Highlights
Any change in the internal components of the climate system or in the external forces that impact this system may result in climate variations
Hydro-climatic hazards can be exacerbated by climate change by affecting the water cycle
The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the future situation of the plain groundwater resources by continuing this policy
Summary
Any change in the internal components of the climate system or in the external forces that impact this system may result in climate variations. Evidence from historical meteorological data and climate forecasts suggest that Iran, like many other countries, has been experiencing a change in climate in recent periods, and it is probable that this trend continues for the projectable future. Hydro-climatic hazards can be exacerbated by climate change by affecting the water cycle. Climate change adaptation is one of the key components of infrastructure and development planning in the prescriptions of international institutions. Climate change is expected to overwhelmingly affect the water resources in Iran and other countries, including surface and underground water resources, water and sewage networks, urban water supply networks, and water-related structures (Shahvari et al 2019). Recent years have seen a growing number of research works on the hydrological
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
