Climate change impact on solar system in Malaysia: Techno-economic analysis

Abstract

Malaysia is actively addressing environmental responsibilities by pledging a 45 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, aided by a large-scale solar photovoltaic initiative. Nonetheless, the unprecedented meteorological events due to climate change such as extreme temperatures and precipitation may reduce the large-scale solar performance and lead to infrastructure damage. The primary objective of this study is to conduct a screening-level analysis from both technical and economic perspectives, in order to assess the effects of extreme temperature and precipitation on large scale solar in Malaysia. This study hypothesized that extreme temperature and precipitation reduce large scale solar performance and increase infrastructure damage. The results demonstrate that both extreme temperature and precipitation increase the power and efficiency loss over time. In general, infrastructure damages caused by extreme temperature and precipitation can result in degradation, a shortened lifespan, and ultimately a collapse. In this study, the costs of physical damage were estimated using the modified levelized cost of energy, and it was found that the cost of physical damage in extreme temperature conditions was approximately 30 % greater than the cost in extreme precipitation conditions, which was nine times greater than in normal condition. Compared to a no-adaptation scenario, it is possible to reduce the additional costs due to extreme temperature and precipitation by up to 53 % and 49 %, respectively. Enhancements, additional analysis, and validation of these findings could aid in the readiness for climate change mitigation efforts, not only for solar power systems but also for other types of energy systems.