Climate change impact on rainfall spatio-temporal variability (Macta watershed case, Algeria)

Abstract

This work describes the climate change impact study on rainfall patterns in Macta watershed, located in the northwest of Algeria. The monthly rainfall data collection, verification and validation have built a database with 42 stations, each with 42 years of observations from 1970 to 2011. The study of annual total rainfall has identified a downward trend and quantifies the deficits that are within the observation time series. The division of the annual rainfall series into four periods allowed to highlighting the increase in inter-year temporal variability with the coefficient of variation increases from 17 to 27%. The study shows an annual rainfall deficit increment from 13 to 25%. The standard deviation values decrease significantly for the last two periods showing a spatial variability. Multivariate statistical study by the hierarchical clustering method resulted in the formation of station groups indicating the unification of monthly rainfall patterns.