CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON POPULATION DENSITY OF PARLATORIA DATE SCALE INSECT, PARLATORIA BLANCHARDII INFESTING DATE PALM TREES IN LUXOR GOVERNORATE, EGYPT

Abstract

the present work was carried out to study the effect of climate change on the population density of the parlatoria date scale, P. blanchardii on date palm trees during the current (2009 to 2013) years and climate change conditions (2050 and 2100 years) at Esna district, Luxor Governorate. In order to compare the population density of pest under current data (average from 2009 to 2013 years) and future conditions, collected data was used to generate climate data under climatic changes conditions. The future climatic data values of (2050 and 2100 years) were used to predict the population density of P. blanchardii under climate change individually. Two climate change scenarios (A1 and B1) were used to assess the consequences of climate change on population density of pest on date palm trees under 2050 and 2100 years. The obtained results showed that monthly observations of total population of P. blanchardii had three to four peaks of seasonal activity per year. Also, the population density of insect increased in 2050s and 2100s as compared to base year data (average from 2009 to 2013 years). The percentages of explained variance (E.V.) indicate that the temperature was responsible for 70.7, 66.2 and 69.45% of the population changes of nymphs, adult numbers and total population of insect during the current year's data, respectively. The expected total population of insect will be higher at 2100s than expected through the 2050sunder the two scenarios (A1 and B1). Furthermore, scenario A1 (worst case) is higher in numbers of nymphs, adult females and a total population of P. blanchardii as compared with B1 scenario (best case). Also, scenario A1 at the 2100s will give the highest total population of insect and scenario B1 at 2050s gave the lowest one. The results showed that the increased temperatures during 2050s and 2100s will increase the seasonal activity of P. blanchardii in Luxor Governorate, Egypt. Generally, the population density of P. blanchardii increased depending on climate region and climate change Scenarios.