Climate Change Impact on Photovoltaic Production From the Perspective of Climate Models: a Systematic Review

Abstract

Objective: This study investigates how the researchers approached the theme the climate change impacts on photovoltaic production (PVP) from the perspective of simulations using climate models. Methodology: A comprehensive literature review was conducted to establish correlations between future PV production and climate change susceptibility on regional and global scales. Keywords related to the theme were used in the Web of Science database. Inclusion criteria selected only complete, free, English scientific articles related to the research theme, published between 1965 and 2023. Results and analysis: As a result, it generated a sample consisted of 58 articles on the impact of climate change on photovoltaic production, with 14 included in the final quantitative synthesis. A wide range of results was presented, stemming from both climate change models and models assessing the influence of weather-related factors on PV production. Patterns in the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic production were observed, and the main climate models used to estimate PVP were recognized, grouped, and discussed. Key databases, commonly used simulation periods, and equations linking meteorological variables to PVP were identified and examined. Conclusion: Numerous publications have emerged on the impacts of climate change on PVP, focusing on empirical equations that relate meteorological variables, cell temperature, and cell efficiency. Most studies adopted a forecast period until the end of the 21st century. The majority of the studies focused on Europe and Asia, with little research on impacts of climate changes on PVP in South and Central America.