Climate Change Impact on Peruvian Biomes

Jose Zevallos,Waldo Lavado-Casimiro

doi:10.3390/f13020238

Abstract

The biodiversity present in Peru will be affected by climatic and anthropogenic changes; therefore, understanding these changes will help generate biodiversity conservation policies. This study analyzes the potential distributions of biomes (B) in Peru under the effects of climate change. The evaluation was carried out using the random forest (RF) method, six bioclimatic variables, and digital topography for the classification of current B in Peru. Subsequently, the calibrated RF model was assimilated to three downscaled regional climate models to project future B distributions for the 2035–2065 horizon. We evaluated possible changes in extension and elevation as well as most susceptible B. Our projections show that future scenarios agreed that 82% of current B coverage will remain stable. Approximately 6% of the study area will change its current conditions to conditions of higher humidity; 4.5% will maintain a stable physiognomy, but with an increase in humidity; and finally, 6% will experience a decrease in humidity but maintain its appearance. Additionally, glaciers and swamps are indicated as the most vulnerable B, with probable losses greater than 50% of their current area. These results demonstrate the need to generate public policies for the adaptation and mitigation of climate effects on B at a national scale.

Highlights

There is complex spatial and temporal variability in the existing vegetation on continents, which influences the resources available to support human well-being, biodiversity, and the biogeochemical cycle [1,2,3]
humid puna (HP) and montane shrubland (MS) were erroneously classified as P in some cases, evergreen montane forest (EMF) as SW, and HP as GC
The methodology developed has allowed us to appreciate the possible effects caused by climate change in the B in Peru, evaluating the consistency of three future climate projections based on regional climate models

Summary

Introduction

There is complex spatial and temporal variability in the existing vegetation on continents, which influences the resources available to support human well-being, biodiversity, and the biogeochemical cycle [1,2,3]. Climate and vegetation interact bidirectionally on many temporal and spatial scales; a clear manifestation of this interaction is the global pattern of vegetation cover and climate. Biomes are defined as similar geographic regions where living organisms with physiologically common characteristics are well adapted and strongly correlated with the regional climate [5]. These units are generally defined at large scales grouping similar ecological units

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion