Climate change impact on crop evapotranspiration in Turkey during the 21st Century

Abstract

Evapotranspiration calculation is an important matter due to agricultural reasons, but also for understanding water resources and runoff amount in a certain territory. Two CMIP5 multimodal projections (2011–2040 and 2041–2070) and land‐cover pattern were used to analyse the seasonal and annual crop evapotranspiration trend in Turkey. The spatial distribution of crop evapotranspiration related to the initial season, mid‐season, end season and cold season were computed through a geographical information system. The maximum crop evapotranspirations were found in the mid‐season for present and future, with 1,072 and 1,241 mm respectively. For the future period, an increase in the spatial distribution of crop evapotranspiration was depicted in several places due to climate warming, mainly in the southern and southeastern areas of Turkey and on the Mediterranean coast. The minimum seasonal crop evapotranspirations fell to below 154 and 164 mm in the present and future respectively. The annual crop evapotranspiration increased from 1,675 to 1,944 mm from present to future and the significant values of absolute changes were identified in the western, eastern and southeastern regions of Turkey. The findings are useful for scientists in the climate, hydrology and agriculture fields, but also for management decisions.