Abstract
Abstract. Global near-surface wind fields are projected to change as a result of climate change. An enhanced knowledge of the changes in wind energy availability in the twenty-first century is essential for improving the development of wind energy production. We use the PRECIS regional model over the East Mediterranean to dynamically downscale the results of the Had3CM Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Model. Wind field changes during the 21st century are determined by comparing the current climate simulation (1961–1990) with the IPCC A2 emissions scenario simulation (2071–2100). The consistency of the current climate simulation of wind speeds is assessed by comparing its results to the ERA40 re-analysis data. The comparison of the wind field from ERA40 re-analysis to that from the PRECIS current climate simulation shows relatively large mean differences that could partly be attributed to the difference in the spatial resolution of the two sources of data. Wind speeds in 2071–2100 exhibit a general increase over land and a decrease over the sea, with the exception of a noticeable increase over the Aegean Sea.
Highlights
Wind speeds over Europe are projected to change during the twenty-first century as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas conditions (Rockel and Woth, 2007)
The analysis is based on the simulated wind field of the current climate (1961–1990) and of the projection based on IPCC A2 scenario for the period (2071–2100)
The simulations were performed with the regional climate model PRECIS
Summary
Wind speeds over Europe are projected to change during the twenty-first century as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas conditions (Rockel and Woth, 2007). Raisanen et al (2004) have conducted a dynamically downscaled RCM study over Europe in order to evaluate the effects of climate change during the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 and B2 green-house gas emission scenarios (IPCC 2001). Their study shows an increase in windiness by about 8% in northern Europe, a decrease mainly in the central Mediterranean and a modest increase over southeastern Europe following the A2 scenario. They have shown that mean and maximum wind speeds are very sensitive to the RCM boundary conditions
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