Abstract

The different life forms on Earth are distributed in a non-random fashion, resulting from a diverse array of events during the Earth’s history that has governed the spatial and temporal distribution of species. Anthropogenic activities have produced changes in global climate and land use that have affected, and will continue to impact, the distribution of biodiversity. Here, we aimed to estimate the genetic diversity and structure of the Couesi’s rice rat Oryzomys couesi, a rodent with a distribution that extends across the Neartic and the Neotropical biogeographic zones in Mexico and Central America, to evaluate the species rangewide microsatellite phylogeography and identify geographic differentiated genetic clusters. We also determined both the current and the potential (under different climate change scenarios) distribution of the identified clusters. Our findings show that O. couesi is genetically structured as four distinct genetic clusters, distributed along both the Pacific and the Atlantic coasts, with high levels of genetic diversity. The Sierra Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre Occidental and Trans-Mexican Volcanic belt are key features associated with the historic dispersal and differentiation of these groups. O. couesi is negatively affected by the climate change projections of its potential future distribution, where the identified clusters lose 7.5–45.1% of their original distribution area. Furthermore, when based on land cover corrections, results show more drastic reductions in which genetic clusters are projected to maintain only a fraction of the area with suitable land cover conditions. In reality, under such scenarios, with extremely reduced and fragmented distributions, these clusters would undoubtedly go extinct. We recommend that suitable potential areas should be conserved and those not currently suitable should be considered as priority areas for restoration, while significantly reducing climate change emissions needs to be of the highest priority.

Full Text
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