Abstract
A climate change impact study was performed for the watershed of the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon in Portugal. The total freshwater inflow to the lagoon was analysed considering long-term average annual and seasonal changes in discharge, as well as extremes in terms of high/low-flow percentiles. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was calibrated at three gauges and driven by a set of 15 climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES project for one reference and three future 30-year periods. The results indicate a moderate decrease of total inflow by 5–7% in the first two scenario periods, and up to 15% in the third period. High flows do not change significantly, whereas low flows show the strongest decreasing trend among the analysed variables (10–30%). Though the trends in average discharge and low flow are very clear, the uncertainty of projections driven by 15 scenarios is high, and it is increasing with time.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor M. White
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