Climate change impact assessment on river basin: Sarisu-Eylikler river, Turkey

Abstract

Climate variability and change are supposed to change regional hydrologic conditions. These changes frequently cause excessive outcomes such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Quantitative estimations of the hydrological effects of climate change is useful for understanding future water resource problems and hence, managing them. The aim of this paper is to represent preliminary results of a study on determining the effect of climate change on stream flow using the SWAT model so as to establish sustainable watershed management and to assess the impacts on various parameters so that policies can be prepared to mitigate negative results. The SWAT model was run for Sarısu-Eylikler river basin in Central Anatolia. HadCM3 General Circulation Model simulations were downscaled to obtain predicted meteorological parameters of the period 2040-2049 and stream flow was estimated using calibrated hydrologic model. Possible impacts of changes in the meteorological variables and stream flow are briefly visited considering increase flood risk and change crop pattern in the area.