Climate Change Impact Assessment of Ski Tourism in Tyrol

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious threat to the highly snow-dependent ski tourism industry. In this paper the potential impacts of climate change on ski areas in Tyrol (Austria, Italy) are investigated. A ski season and snowmaking simulation model ‘SkiSim2’ was applied to 111 ski areas. Model results suggest that all ski areas could ensure a 100-days season until the 2030s to the 2040s (high/low emission scenario) assuming a 100% snowmaking coverage and state-of-the-art snowmaking system. The Christmas holidays are a particularly sensitive season period, where already in the 2020s some ski areas do not fulfil economic thresholds. A warming greater than 3°C would force most ski areas to close their business not considering developments in snowmaking technology and economic thresholds of snowmaking costs. Regarding the snow demand to ensure a 100-days season independent of any technological limits, snow production would have to be multiplied by up to a factor of 4. It is questionable whether all ski areas will be able to afford the increasing snowmaking costs and therefore the most vulnerable regions should rethink their touristic positioning.