Abstract
Abstract. Rice is an important cereal crop and part of daily diet not only in India but also throughout Asia. Agriculture is highly dependent on the variations in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation and long-term climate patterns. The pattern of changing climate in last 30 years indicate that predictable and possible changes in rainfall and temperature can reduce agriculture outputs and yields particularly for rice and wheat significantly. The main aim of this research paper is to study the Kharif Rice Productivity in Hisar, Haryana under changing climate. The study focuses on the impacts of climate change namely intensity, timings and spatial distribution of rainfall. Kharif rice is more vulnerable to meteorological drought due to growing uncertainties in monsoon rains under the changing climate patterns. The study of seasonal changes in precipitation at decadal scale for observed and CORDEX projected precipitation for the selected region was done to understand the impacts of climate change. Along with this, DSSAT Crop Simulation Model was run to quantify the water stress in the years with more negative rainfall departure and to identify the reasons for variability in yield. DSSAT model was able to simulate phenological events and final grain yield at maturity stage with reasonable accuracy under varied weather conditions. The analysis of the simulated results indicates the association between yield and rainfall amount and its distribution during the season and different phenological growth stages of rice. The results further indicate that water stress at important stages such as Booting, Heading and Flowering majorly impact the final yield.
Highlights
IntroductionGlobal/Regional Circulation models predict that in central Asia temperatures are likely to increase by 3-4 deg C and the atmospheric CO2 concentration will increase to 4851000ppm
Climate Change is a global phenomenon and an important global issue
It is generally supposed that the variation in the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during growing season principally caused variation in the rice yield. (Rana et al, 2016)
Summary
Global/Regional Circulation models predict that in central Asia temperatures are likely to increase by 3-4 deg C and the atmospheric CO2 concentration will increase to 4851000ppm. The increased CO2 concentration from present 380ppm will have positive physiological effects still yield are likely to decrease by 30% due to increasing temperature predictions. Rice is grown under varying climate conditions and altitudes in India. Rice-growing season vary across the entire country, depending upon temperature, monsoon, soil types, water availability and other weather conditions prevail in the particular region. Kharif is the main rice-growing season in the country and sowing time for kharif rice is June-July and harvested in October-November. Haryana is northern region of the country and experiences low winter temperature and rice is grown under irrigated condition during Kharif season from May-July to September-November. Rice-Wheat crop Rotation is the dominant cropping pattern in the Haryana. (http://sap.ipni.net/article/haryana)
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