Abstract

Abstract Rice and wheat, two staple food grain crops, play a key role in farmers' income and food security. The response of these crops towards climate change is heterogeneous and uncertain. Therefore, it becomes essential to analyse the impact of climate change on these crops. An investigation was performed to analyse the impact of climate change on rice and wheat yield and to quantify the uncertainties in the yield predictions in West Bengal, India. The climatic projections from eight global climate models were used to simulate the rice and wheat yields in all districts of West Bengal. A quantile mapping method was used to correct systematic biases of daily rainfall, solar radiation and temperature. The corrected data were then used for driving crop environment and resource synthesis models for yield simulations. Results reveal that rice yield is expected to reduce by 7–9% in the 2020s, 8–14% in the 2050s and 8–15% in the 2080s, whereas wheat yield is expected to go down by 18–20% in the 2020s, 20–28% in the 2050s and 18–33% in the 2080s. These reductions signify that rice and wheat yield is more likely to decline under the future climate change condition, which may affect the regional food sustainability.

Highlights

  • Global warming is accelerating due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that depend on natural, direct and indirect anthropogenic activities

  • The impact of climate change on rice and wheat yield was analysed in different districts and all over the West Bengal state of India

  • quantile mapping method (QMM) was used for bias correction of Global climate models (GCMs) projections

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Summary

Introduction

Global warming is accelerating due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that depend on natural, direct and indirect anthropogenic activities. This warming leads to changes in magnitude of different weather variables like rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, etc. Rainfall is likely to change in pattern, frequency and intensity, and will become more intense over the globe in future (Stocker et al ). In India, temperatures (minimum and maximum) are projected to increase (Chaturvedi et al ), whereas low and medium rainfall events are likely to decrease along with increased frequency of heavy rainfall events by the end of the century (Kundu et al ; Pai et al ). The yields of maize, wheat and other major crops have reduced by 40 MT per year during 1981 to 2002 at the global scale (Lobell & Field )

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