Abstract
The impact of climate-change disasters poses significant challenges for South Africa, especially for vulnerable rural households. In South Africa, the impact of climate change at the local level, especially in rural areas, is not well known. Rural households are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, but the extent of their vulnerability is largely not understood. This study looked at the micro-level impact of climate change, evaluated household vulnerability and assessed alternative adaptation strategies in rural areas. The results indicate that climate change will hit crop yields hard and that households with less capital are most vulnerable. These households consist of the elderly and households headed by females. Households that receive remittances or extension services or participate in formal savings schemes in villages are less vulnerable. The results suggest that households need to move towards climate-smart agriculture, which combines adaptation, mitigation and productivity growth.
Highlights
Developing countries are increasingly vulnerable to disasters
In South Africa, the millions of people living in rural areas are amongst the poorest and the most vulnerable and have a low capacity for resilience with which to cope with disaster risks
This study (1) models the impact of climate change at local level; (2) uses the Household Vulnerability Index (HVI) to evaluate the vulnerability of rural households to natural disasters, food and water insecurities; (3) establishes the costs and benefits of different rural adaptation strategies and (4) provides recommendations on the fiscal-policy measures and instruments that can be used to improve the resilience of households
Summary
Developing countries are increasingly vulnerable to disasters. In South Africa, the millions of people living in rural areas are amongst the poorest and the most vulnerable and have a low capacity for resilience with which to cope with disaster risks. Current interventions fail to recognise the different types of impact of climate-change disasters on people’s livelihoods, especially in rural households. Identifying those households and livelihoods that are vulnerable to climate change has become a key input for targeting, formulating, monitoring and evaluating adaptation policies. Climate change is a global externality that negatively affects households, communities and the broader economy. A heavy dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors, in particular agriculture, makes South Africa vulnerable to climate change. The effect of climate change on agricultural output will directly affect rural communities through reduced income and employment, and it will have a knock-on effect on both the rural economies and the food-security nexus (FFC 2012). As (human, financial and physical) resources are limited, it is important that these scarce resources are targeted at the most vulnerable communities
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