Climate change, habitat connectivity, and conservation gaps: a case study of four ungulate species endemic to the Tibetan Plateau

Jianchao Liang,Paras Bikram Singh,Yiming Hu,Zhixiang Zhang,Huijian Hu,Zhifeng Ding,Keji Guo,Zhigang Jiang,Xiaojun Yang,Rongbo Xiao

doi:10.1007/s10980-021-01202-0

Abstract

ContextHabitat connectivity is essential for the long-term persistence of species, but is commonly disregarded in climate change impact studies. The Tibetan Plateau contains a biome rich in endemic ungulates, which are highly sensitive to climatic variations and deserve particular attention in conservation planning against climate change.ObjectivesWe evaluated the response and vulnerability of habitat connectivity to climate change for four ungulate species endemic to the Tibetan Plateau, and examined the robustness of protected areas (PAs) for the conservation of these species under climate change.MethodsFor each focal species, we developed ecological niche models to predict the spatial variations in habitat under climate change and conducted a network-theoretical analysis to estimate the consequent changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, we used the circuit theory to characterize dispersal patterns of these species and conducted gap analyses to estimate the contribution of existing PAs to the conservation of these species.ResultsThe four focal species will experience a remarkable connectivity loss that outpaced their habitat loss in response to climate change. Currently, 53.39 and 46.64% of the areas that could contribute to the habitat suitability and connectivity, respectively, of these species are unprotected. These values could further increase under future climate conditions.ConclusionsClimate-driven habitat variations may lead to the loss of key connectivity areas between the habitats of ungulates, causing disproportionate decrease in habitat connectivity. The existing PAs on the Tibetan Plateau are not robust for the conservation of the four ungulates. Adjustment of certain key PAs may help to address the conservation gaps.

Highlights

Habitat connectivity, which is defined as the degree to which habitat promotes or hinders species dispersal (Taylor et al 1993), is a key factor for population persistence (Morelli et al 2017)
In the face of ongoing climate change, species are forced to alter their habitat to adapt to the new climate pattern, which may have a profound impact on their habitat connectivity
Our case study suggests that the habitat connectivity of the wild yak, kiang, Tibetan antelope, and Tibetan gazelle will significantly decrease following climate-driven habitat variations on the Tibetan Plateau

Summary

Introduction

Habitat connectivity, which is defined as the degree to which habitat promotes or hinders species dispersal (Taylor et al 1993), is a key factor for population persistence (Morelli et al 2017). Low habitat connectivity impedes ecological processes such as daily foraging, seasonal migration, successful reproduction, and juvenile dispersal (Rayfield et al 2011; Braaker et al 2014). Singh Biodiversity Conservation Society (BIOCOS) Nepal, Lalitpur 12834, Nepal. Z. Zhang Museum of Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

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