Abstract
SummaryClimate change presents a particularly complex challenge in the context of flyway scale conservation of migratory bird species as it requires coordinated action by multiple countries along these species’ migratory routes. Coordinating conservation responses requires understanding the vulnerability of species and their habitats to climate change at the flyway scale throughout each species’ annual cycle. To contribute to such understanding, we used species distribution models to assess the exposure to climate change of waterbird species that are the focus of the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA). We found that the species with the smallest proportion of their current range projected to be climatically suitable by 2050 (those whose distributions respond to changes in water availability but that do not perform synchronised migration) are dispersive species in the Afrotropical biogeographic realm, and migratory species in their breeding season, particularly Arctic breeding waders. These species also have the most limited availability of newly suitable areas. Projections for most other Palearctic migratory waterbird species suggest that losses of suitable areas in their current passage and wintering ranges may be largely offset by new areas becoming climatically suitable. The majority of migratory Palearctic waterbirds in the breeding season and Afrotropical waterbirds are widely dispersed with only a small proportion of their populations currently supported by ‘Critical Sites’ (i.e. sites that are either important for Globally Threatened Species or support 1% of the bioregional population of any waterbird species). This makes it unlikely that climate change adaptation measures focusing only on key sites will be sufficient to counter the predicted range losses. Therefore, climate change adaptation responses should also be implemented at the landscape scale for Afrotropical waterbirds and for breeding populations of Palearctic migrant waterbirds.
Highlights
Climate change presents new challenges for waterbird conservation
A growing body of evidence shows that many waterbirds are already changing their distributions in response to climate change (e.g. Maclean et al 2008, Lehikoinen et al 2013, Amano et al 2020), and that their wetland habitats are exposed to climatic changes (e.g. Winter 2000, Junk et al 2013, Mitchell 2013)
We modelled current and future waterbird distributions using an ensemble of four statistical modelling techniques (Guisan et al 2017): general linear model (GLM; Guisan et al 2002), maximum entropy (Maxent; Phillips et al 2017), boosted regression tree (BRT; called gradient boosting machine, GBM; Elith et al 2008) and random forest (RF; Prasad et al 2006)
Summary
Climate change presents new challenges for waterbird conservation. Maclean et al 2008, Lehikoinen et al 2013, Amano et al 2020), and that their wetland habitats are exposed to climatic changes Wetlands are the focus of the first global biodiversity treaty: the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat, adopted in 1971 (Ramsar Convention 1994). The 1999 Strategic Framework and guidelines for the future development of the List of Wetlands of International Importance set the long-term target to identify and include in the List all wetlands that meet Criteria 5 and 6 for waterbirds (paragraphs 82 and 87 in Ramsar Convention 1999) and this target was reiterated in Resolution X.22 (Ramsar Convention 2008)
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