Abstract
The aim of this study was to evaluate the ecological niche models (ENMs) for three specialist trees (Anadenanthera colubrina, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodruon urundeuva) in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) in Brazil, considering present and future pessimist scenarios (2080) of climate change. These three species exhibit typical deciduousness and are widely distributed by SDTF in South America, being important in studies of the historical and evolutionary processes experienced by this ecosystem. The modeling of the potential geographic distribution of species was done by the method of maximum entropy (Maxent).We verified a general expansion of suitable areas for occurrence of the three species in future (c.a., 18%), although there was reduction of areas with high environmental suitability in Caatinga region. Precipitation of wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were the predictor variables that most contributed to our models. Climatic changes can provide more severe and longer dry season with increasing temperature and tree mortality in tropics. On this scenario, areas currently occupied by rainforest and savannas could become more suitable for occurrence of the SDTF specialist trees, whereas regions occupied by Caatinga could not support the future level of unsustainable (e.g., aridity). Long-term multidisciplinary studies are necessary to make reliable predictions of the plant's adaptation strategies and responses to climate changes in dry forest at community level. Based on the high deforestation rate, endemism and threat, public policies to minimize the effects of climate change on the biodiversity found within SDTFs must be undertaken rapidly.
Highlights
The study of the impacts on biodiversity provoked by climate changes is not a new theme in the scientific literature (Parmesan, 2006; Phillips et al, 2010; Liu et al, 2013), but in last decade global climate changes reached great notoriety, notably in the popular press
Brazilian seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) currently show wide distributions, with discontinuous areas on several biomes (Figure 1a), and most suitable areas to the occurrence of the three species evaluated here are concentrated in the northeastern region of the country (e.g., Caatinga region)
Based on the model prediction, suitable areas for occupation of SDTFs specialist trees will expand in the future (2080), affecting the distribution of these forests over large humid areas of Brazil, principally in the northern, central-western (e.g., Tocantins, Mato Grosso and Goiás), and the western part of the northeastern region of that country (e.g., Maranhão)
Summary
The study of the impacts on biodiversity provoked by climate changes is not a new theme in the scientific literature (Parmesan, 2006; Phillips et al, 2010; Liu et al, 2013), but in last decade global climate changes reached great notoriety, notably in the popular press. The two largest continuous areas of this vegetation type are located in South America: one in northeastern Brazil (e.g., Caatinga region), and the other covering southeastern Bolivia and Paraguay and northern Argentina (Miles et al, 2006; Portillo-Quintero and Sánchez-Azofeifa, 2010), and these two sites represent 54.2% of the total area of remnant SDTFs in the world (Miles et al, 2006) These forests are dominated by deciduous trees with average annual temperature ≥ 25 °C, the total annual rainfall ranges between 700 and 2000 mm, and there is a minimum dry period of three months (rainfall < 100 mm/month) (Sánchez-Azofeifa et al, 2005). Severe climatic changes are predicted to occur between 2040 and 2069 in South America, and likely will affect the distribution of seasonal ecosystems due to increases in aridity (Miles et al, 2006), reinforcing the urgency of studies in order to determine the potential distribution of Brazilian SDTFs
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