Abstract
The effects of climate change on agricultural ecosystems are increasing, and droughts affect many regions. Drought has substantial ecological, social, and economic consequences for the sustainability of agricultural land. Many regions of the northern hemisphere have not experienced a high frequency of meteorological droughts in the past. For understanding the implications of climate change on grassland, analysis of the long-term climate data provides key information relevant for improved grassland management strategies. Using weather data and grassland production data from a long-term permanent grassland site, our aims were (i) to detect the most important drought periods that affected the region and (ii) to assess whether climate changes and variability significantly affected forage production in the last decade. For this purpose, long-term daily weather data (1961–2019) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), De Martonne index (IDM), water deficit (WD), dryness index (DI), yield anomaly index (YAI), and annual yield loss index (YL) were used to provide a scientific estimation. The results show that, despite a positive trend in DI and a negative trend in WD and precipitation, the time-series trends of precipitation, WD, and DI indices for 1961–2019 were not significant. Extreme dry conditions were also identified with SPI values less than −2. The measured annual forage yield (2007–2018) harvested in a four-cut silage system (with and without organic N-fertilization) showed a strong correlation with WD (R = 0.64; p ˂ 0. 05). The main yield losses were indicated for the years 2008 and 2018. The results of this study could provide a perspective for drought monitoring, as well as drought warning, in grassland in northwest Europe.
Highlights
IntroductionRecent atmospheric warming and climate change have the potential for significant effects on agriculture systems and their productivity [1,2]
Introduction published maps and institutional affilRecent atmospheric warming and climate change have the potential for significant effects on agriculture systems and their productivity [1,2]
The time-series analysis indicated that the mean annual temperature of the study area increased continuously during the period 1961 to 2019
Summary
Recent atmospheric warming and climate change have the potential for significant effects on agriculture systems and their productivity [1,2]. Crop and livestock–forage systems are vulnerable to adverse changes in temperature and precipitation when they impact cultivation, sowing, growth, and utilization. Changes in precipitation and seasonal water regimes can result in increased drought, thereby greatly affecting productivity [3]. Anthropogenic climate change, attributed to the greatly increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the 19th century, has been identified as a cause of increased frequency and severity of droughts [4,5]. A drought event is considered to occur when there is a significant decrease in water availability over a critical period compared with normal levels [13,14,15]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
