Abstract

The livestock industries are a major contributor to the economy of the northeastern United States. Climate models predict increased average maximum temperatures, days with temperatures exceeding 25 °C, and higher annual precipitation in the Northeast. These environmental changes combined with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to either increase or decrease forage productivity depending on the crop, and may decrease protein content and forage digestibility. Winter damage to sensitive forage species may also increase. Predicted temperature increases are expected to reduce fertility in dairy cattle and heat stress-induced inflammation may limit energy available for productive functions. Additional loss in milk production due to decreased feed intake is estimated to be up to 1% of the projected annual milk production through 2100. The effects of climate change on the beef industry in the Northeast are expected to be minimal. Broiler production in the region may benefit from warmer winter and summer temperatures, but future housing will require greater insulation and ventilation fan capacity. Providing adequate housing and ventilation to offset climate changes will also be important for the layer industry and will likely increase the price of eggs. Climate change is expected to have an economic impact on the horse industry in the region through additional management of land and forage resources, building of shelters, and heat abatement at equine events. Increased temperatures and more intense storms will increase nutrient losses and gaseous emissions from animal manure. Uncertainties about how host animals, pathogens, and disease vectors will respond to climate change highlight the need for continued animal health monitoring.

Highlights

  • The livestock industries are a major contributor to the economy of the northeastern United States

  • Climate change is expected to have an economic impact on the horse industry in the region through additional management of land and forage resources, building of shelters, and heat abatement at equine events

  • Animals have optimal temperature ranges for growth and comfort known as the thermo-neutral zone (TNZ) that depend on the species, animal age and physiological state, relative humidity, and other factors

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Summary

Economic impact of the livestock industries in the Northeast

Dairy production is a major contributor to the agricultural economy of the northeastern US. Total milk and dairy product sales in the region exceeded $7.5 billion in 2014 (USDA-ERS 2016). As the top agricultural commodity of the Northeast (NE), sales of dairy products represented 32% of all farm receipts. Beef animals in the NE represent 3.7% of the national inventory, but just 2% of the national cattle and calf farm receipts, at $1.69 billion in 2014 (USDA-ERS 2016). Poultry and egg production in the region represents 9.4% of the total value produced in the USA. Using a conservative estimate of $2000 to $6000/horse, the total value of horses in the NE is between $1.4 and $4.3 billion. The region’s sheep sales, including lambs, totaled $34.5 million in 2012 and goat sales were estimated at $10.8 million (NASS 2012). The swine industry had a $362.5 million production value in the NE in 2013

Climate trends and projections for the Northeast—a summary
General issues
Dairy cattle
Poultry
Beef cattle
Horses
Climate change impact on livestock manure management
Findings
Climate change impact on emerging pathogens and disease
Full Text
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