Abstract
Overheating in residential building is a challenging problem that causes thermal discomfort, productivity reduction, and health problems. This paper aims to assess the climate change impact on thermal comfort in a Belgian reference case. The case study represents a nearly zero energy building that operates without active cooling during summer. The study quantifies the impact of climate change on overheating risks using three representative concentration pathway (RCP) trajectories for greenhouse gas concentration adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Building performance analysis is carried out using a multizone dynamic simulation program EnergyPlus. The results show that bioclimatic and thermal adaptation strategies, including adaptive thermal comfort models, cannot suppress the effect of global warming. By 2050, zero energy buildings will be vulnerable to overheating.
Highlights
Characterizing future trends in climate and their uncertainty is crucial to understanding how climate change will influence people’s well-being in dwellings
In 2100, the worst thermal comfort scenario is found in living rooms, 6 of 11 where overheating hours can reach 1489 h (16.9%) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5
In 2050, the worst thermal comfort scenario is found in living rooms, where overheating hours can reach 1028 h (11.7%) under RCP 8.5
Summary
Characterizing future trends in climate and their uncertainty is crucial to understanding how climate change will influence people’s well-being in dwellings. The frequency of extreme weather events’ intensity is critical information to assess and develop mitigation strategies facing climate change. The characterization of trends and uncertainty in climate extremes is missing in many existing publications [1,2]. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves during summers have an increasing impact on society [3]. The projected rise in temperatures will make dwellings more uncomfortable to live in and potentially will not allow working from home. The poorly ventilated and overheated sleeping and living rooms can become dangerous to occupants’ health and their thermal comfort, in particular older people. With newly and well-insulated buildings, there is a high risk of overheating [4,5] when exposed to large amounts of solar radiation and internal heat gains
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