Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis.

J P G Van Leuken,A N Swart,D Heederik,A Van Pul,P Droogers,A H Havelaar

doi:10.1007/s10453-016-9435-5

J P G Van Leuken, A N Swart + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-016-9435-5

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Journal: Aerobiologia	Publication Date: Mar 24, 2016
Citations: 21	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Utrecht University, Water Insight (Netherlands)

Abstract

The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981–2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016–2045 and 2036–2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981–2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from −67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.

Highlights

The 2014 Fifth Assessment Report of the U.N
We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981–2010) modelled concentrations
We focused on the effects of climate change on airborne transmission of pathogenic bioaerosols, which are able to cause infections in humans and animals by penetrating into the alveoli (Stuart and Wilkening 2005; Wery 2014)

Summary

Introduction

The 2014 Fifth Assessment Report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)has further increased scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century (IPCC 2014). The exact effects on temperature, precipitation patterns, and large-scale circulation patterns are, highly dependent on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in the nearby future Climate change affects, both positive and negative, water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health (Boxall et al 2009; Godfray et al 2010; Hitz and Smith 2004; Szwed et al 2010). Both positive and negative, water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health (Boxall et al 2009; Godfray et al 2010; Hitz and Smith 2004; Szwed et al 2010) The latter includes the extent of spread of vectorborne, waterborne, and airborne infectious diseases (Semenza and Menne 2009)

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