Climate Change-Driven Hydrological Shifts in the Kon-Ha Thanh River Basin

Abstract

Climate change is projected to bring substantial changes to hydroclimatic extremes, which will affect natural river regimes and have wide-ranging impacts on human health and ecosystems, particularly in Central Highland Vietnam. This study focuses on understanding and quantifying the projected impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Kon-Ha Thanh River basin, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) between 2016 and 2099. The study examined projected changes in streamflow across three time periods (2016–2035, 2046–2065, and 2080–2029) under two scenarios, Representative Conversion Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The model was developed and validated on a daily scale with the model performance, yielding good performance scores, including Coefficient of Determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values of 0.79, 0.77, and 50.96 m3/s, respectively. Our findings are (1) streamflow during the wet season is projected to increase by up to 150%, particularly in December, under RCP 8.5; (2) dry season flows are expected to decrease by over 10%, beginning in May, heightening the risk of water shortages during critical agricultural periods; and (3) shifts in the timing of flood and dry seasons are found toward 2099 that will require adaptive measures for water resource management. These findings provide a scientific foundation for incorporating climate change impacts into regional water management strategies and enhancing the resilience of local communities to future hydroclimatic challenges.