Climate change dominates the interannual variation of carbon export efficiency in each season in the Northern Gulf of Mexico during 1998–2011

Abstract

Carbon export efficiency is a key indicator of the capacity of biological pump, but the controlling mechanism of the efficiency remains unclear. Our findings revealed that interannual variations in seasonal carbon export efficiency are determined by direct factors including riverine nutrient fluxes, stratification, residence time. These direct factors are finally attributed to two indirect factors (human activities and climate change). We quantified the absolute contributions of direct and indirect factors to carbon export efficiency. The results showed that the carbon export efficiency in the northern Gulf of Mexico in spring (summer; autumn; winter) was driven by human activities, which accounted for an absolute contribution of 16.02% (7.20%; 4.00%; 8.49%, respectively) through riverine nutrient fluxes, and by climate change, which accounted for an absolute contribution of 33.51% (21.43%; 25.73%; 15.80%, respectively) through stratification and water residence time. Moreover, carbon export efficiency could be predicted by MEI of 8 months earlier.