Abstract
<p><em>Time is very tight for halting climate change. The COP21 project is not enough, according to the new theory of abrupt climate change. Major meltdowns of ice in Greenland and Antarctica would threaten large coastal cities around the globe, like for instance New York, London and Singapore as well as Shanghai. The discovery of several so-called tipping points substantiates the Hawking warming about irreversibiity.</em><em></em></p>
Highlights
The well-known Prisoners’ Dilemma game or PD game for short offers a standard model of the problematic of promises: respect them or renege upon them
Will the promises about decarbonisation from 2020 to 2075 be held or not? Given that states are sovereign under Public International Law (PIL), the signing governments cannot be forced by an outsider to respect the promises made
Such a close connection between GDP and energy consumption in China imples that China must turn to renewables massively in order to comply with COP21 goals
Summary
The well-known Prisoners’ Dilemma game or PD game for short offers a standard model of the problematic of promises: respect them or renege upon them. Given that states are sovereign under Public International Law (PIL), the signing governments cannot be forced by an outsider to respect the promises made. It is all voluntary agreement, which may be reneged upon by governments, if the costs of decarbonisaton appear too heavy for them each individually or advantageous for each one to continue with fossil fuels. The COP Treaty falls under the model of a Common Pool Regime (CPR). According to the famous Elinor Ostrom analysis (1990), CPRs are voluntary and rely upon self-policing. She focussed upon domestic CPRs mainly, and www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/asir. Why? Because the value of the game is tremendously important, namely energy
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