Abstract
The objective of the article is to analyse the impact of short- and long-term climate variations on the costs of removing snow and ice from the roads in Bergen—the second most populous city in Norway. The analysis applies simple mathematics, Monte Carlo simulations and multivariate regression methodology. The municipality of Bergen manages about 630 km of roads and 100 km of foot and bicycle paths, and the municipal administration spends NOK 37 million (or about USD 4.5 million) annually on removing snow and ice during the winter period. The analysis shows that a 1 °C increase in the mean temperature reduces the winter maintenance costs by NOK 14 million, and it is likely that there will be no need for winter snow-clearing operations if the long-term mean atmospheric temperature increases by approximately 2.5 °C or more relative to the historical mean temperature level. The analysis shows that the variance and trend of the temperature have a strong effect on the likelihood of a snow- and ice-free winter and that a long-term reduction in the variance reduces the likelihood of rare events even though the mean temperature increases. The analysis provides the municipality of Bergen with information about the relationship between climate and winter road maintenance costs, and the statistical models can help to quantify the amount of economic and material resources needed for this purpose. The analysis is a contribution in the field of economic impact analysis of climate change on the transport sector.
Highlights
Bergen City is located at the west coast of Norway and northern Europe
The objective of the article is to analyse the impact of climate change on the winter road maintenance costs and the rare event of snow-free winter in Bergen—the second largest city in Norway
The analysis shows that increasing temperatures have a significant negative effect on the winter road maintenance costs
Summary
Bergen City is located at the west coast of Norway and northern Europe Bergen Municipality is responsible for maintaining approximately. Snow and ice are removed from the roads to keep the infrastructure open for traffic. The municipality spent on average NOK 37 million per year on winter operations (2015 value). During the period 2005–2015, Bergen Municipality spent in total NOK 407 million or approximately USD 4.5 million, given an exchange rate of NOK 9 per USD (Norges Bank 2019) on these operations diring the winter season. Weather conditions play a decisive role for the extent of snow and ice on the roads and for resources needed to keep the roads open for normal and safe traffic. The Traffic department of the Bergen Municipality organizes the winter operations and outsources most of the operations to private firms
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