Climate Change and Wheat Production in Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh – A Technical Efficiency Analysis

Zarin Tasnim,Asm Golam Hafeez,Shankar Majumder

doi:10.5539/jas.v7n1p43

Abstract

The present study aims at measuring the technical efficiency of wheat production under changing climate in drought prone areas of Bangladesh. The study employed farm level cross sectional data taken from 100 farmers using purposive random sampling technique from three upazilas of Thakurgoan district of Bangladesh. The study considered two successive years 2006 and 2007 as drought and normal year respectively on the basis of farmers’ opinion and information collected from meteorological station. Semi-logarithmic regression model with dummy variable was used to estimate production variability of wheat due to drought. The findings showed that wheat production decreased by 17.4 percent on an average due to drought occurrence in the study areas. Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function was used to determine the technical efficiency of the wheat growers and the factors which influence technical efficiency in wheat production. The empirical results of technical efficiency model showed that the effects of seed, pesticide, tillage, irrigation and fertilizer costs were significant in the production of wheat. Education, family size, farming experience, credit, extension- contact and farm size had negative effects on technical inefficiency of farmers which indicates that technical inefficiency decreases with the increase of these factors in both normal and drought years. The mean technical efficiencies were 67.00 and 86.40 percent in normal and drought years respectively. The results also indicate a good potential for increasing wheat production by 33 and 14 percent in normal and drought years respectively using the available resources and technology. Wheat farmers should give more attention to their farming practices and should take rationale decision for using farm resources efficiently.

Highlights

Introduction and BackgroundThe economy of Bangladesh is primarily dependent on agriculture which contributes about 20.83 percent to the country’s GDP (BBS, 2008)
The results indicate a good potential for increasing wheat production by 33 and 14 percent in normal and drought years respectively using the available resources and technology
The findings of the study showed that wheat growers were efficient in wheat production and able to produce maximum output with existing inputs

Summary

Introduction

The economy of Bangladesh is primarily dependent on agriculture which contributes about 20.83 percent to the country’s GDP (BBS, 2008). About 48.1 percent of the labour force is employed in agriculture (BBS Labour Force Survey 2005-2006). Bangladesh is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of its disadvantageous geographic location, flat and low-lying topography, high population density, high levels of poverty, reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors, agriculture. Many of the anticipated adverse effect of climate change, such as sea level rise, higher temperature, enhanced monsoon precipitation and an increase in drought intensity, will aggravate the existing stresses that already impede the development of Bangladesh, by reducing food security (Quazi & Quddus, 2010). Along with climate variability high growth rate of population makes the situation worse. Food security and food self-sufficiency of the country face continuous threats from these major problems

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion