Climate Change and Water Resources in North Caucasus and South Urals

Abstract

While previous studies have focused on impacts of average climate change on food production and water resources, this study takes into account the impact of changing frequency and spatial heterogeneity of extreme climate events, first of all, droughts. We analyze impacts of the IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the use of the GLASS model (containing the GAEZ crop production model and the WaterGAP water resources model). We evaluate future risk of extreme climatic events for food production and water availability for two important regions of Russia — North Caucasus and Urals. Under climate normal conditions it is estimated that “food production shortfalls” (a year in which potential production of the most important crops in a region is below 50% of its average climate normal production, taking into account production in food exporting regions) occur roughly one to three years in each decade. This frequency will double in the both regions in the 2020s, and triple in the 2070s. The assessment of climate impacts on water resources indicates an increase in average water availability in Russia, but also a significantly increased frequency of high runoff events in much of central Russia, and more frequent low runoff events in the South. Unlike the food production, the situation with water resources looks very different for North Caucasus (Kuban and Don river basins) and Urals (Ural river basin) regions. The results suggest the increasing threat to the water resource of the North Caucasus and more stable water flow in the Urals in the new climate.KeywordsAverage climate changeextreme climate eventsfood shortfallshigh runoff eventswater availability