Abstract
Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make.
Highlights
Observed change in the climate over recent decades has been linked with changes in the global hydrological cycle, including increased atmospheric water content and changing precipitation patterns (Allan, 2011; Bates et al, 2008)
While we focus on the UK, we expect that the construction of this synthesis and the identification of gaps will be relevant to others planning research to aid decision-making
Air temperature increases have been attributed formally to anthropogenic climate change, and water temperature changes may be linked to the same processes that have changed air temperature, though water temperature is only partly dependent on air temperature
Summary
Observed change in the climate over recent decades has been linked with changes in the global hydrological cycle, including increased atmospheric water content and changing precipitation patterns (Allan, 2011; Bates et al, 2008). Projections of climate change at a regional level show considerable variability, with disagreement even about the sign of change in variables such as precipitation in some regions and seasons (Bates et al, 2008). This is a particular problem for the UK, where weather patterns are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, storm tracks and blocking (Murphy et al, 2009), and where Global Climate Model (GCM) output needs to be Progress in Physical Geography 39(1)
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